RocketFinance · Polymarket
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
As of Oct 31, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 70%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 70%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (3d 17h)
- Volume
- $67,649
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 26 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Democrats' Senate Path Expands Into Texas and Kansas Ahead of the Midterms: Poll · ibtimes.com
- Nonpartisan Forecaster Favors Democrats to Win House, Gives Them Slight Edge for Senate · theepochtimes.com
- Alaska Senate turmoil drapes Democrats in silence as Peltola denies wrongdoing · washingtonexaminer.com
- JD Vance rallies Texas Republicans as Democrats gain ground in tight Senate race · thejournal.ie
- Alaska Gov. Orders Probe Over Claims Democrats Recruited Senate Spoiler Candidate; US Economy Gains Momentum · theepochtimes.com
- Democrats and Republicans take different paths as they try to win the Senate · nbcnews.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 70%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-31 11:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.