RocketFinance · Polymarket
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 19%. RocketScience's forecast is 20%, 0.4 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 19%
- Our forecast
- 20%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 28, 2026 (12d 14h)
- Volume
- $58,134
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans YES across 10 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates — Ratehub.ca
- Find the best 5-year fixed mortgage rates in Canada — Ratehub.ca
- Calls increase for Bank of Canada to hike rates in October as global investment bank UBS weighs in — msn.com
- Higher Bond Yields Set to Raise Mortgage Payments for Canadians — C.D. Howe Institute
- Bank of Canada interest rate decision: October 2026 — cryptoslate.com
- Rate hike calls gather pace ahead of October BoC decision — Mortgage Professional America
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 19%. RocketScience forecasts 20% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?”?
Our call is NO at 20%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 28, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.