RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 24%. RocketScience's forecast is 32%, 8.4 points above the market, and our call is NO. That gap is big enough for a Buy YES signal.
- Market odds
- 24%
- Our forecast
- 32%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Buy YES
- Closes
- Oct 28, 2026 (13d 8h)
- Volume
- $15,508
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely YES across 4 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- GBP/USD fell 0.52% to 1.3185 after US core CPI rose 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast. — TradingNEWS
- EUR/USD Rate Gap Keeps the Dollar Advantage Intact Despite the Rebound — Investing.com Canada
- The Fed May Now Skip October Rate Hike — but December Is Still Very Much in Play — 24/7 Wall St.
- Dollar-Yen Pinned at 158.42 Between Carry and Intervention — 159 Caps Upside, 157 Opens on Soft CPI — TradingNEWS
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 24%. RocketScience forecasts 32% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?”?
Our call is NO at 32%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 28, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.