RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
As of Nov 4, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 30%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 30%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 1, 2026 (26d 17h)
- Volume
- $95,815
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 19 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Navy Veteran Nancy Lacore flips Nancy Mace's South Carolina House seat one year after being fired by Pete Hegseth · hindustantimes.com
- Pete Hegseth said Brett Sylvia failed 3 polygraphs — Wall Street Journal · el-balad.com
- Pete Hegseth Is Destined to Be Trump's Midterm Fall Guy · newrepublic.com
- Democrats vow subpoenas and Pete Hegseth scrutiny after midterm win · foxnews.com
- Pete Hegseth Hit With Pentagon Lawsuit Over Elon Musk's Warfare Role · radaronline.com
- Pentagon rebels as 'uncontrollable enemies' plot Pete Hegseth's fall · alternet.org
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 30%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-04 11:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.