RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will the difference between the number of Yes votes for Proposition 42 and the number of Yes votes for Proposition 40 be above 0 votes in the November 3, 2026 California general election?
As of Nov 4, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 97%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 97%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 11, 2026 (37d 3h)
- Volume
- $1,337
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 17 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Proposition 39 requiring voter ID in California projected to fail, per AP · turnto23.com
- California voters approve Proposition 1, passing $11.25 billion housing bond · dailybruin.com
- Proposition 40: How California could become the first US state to tax Billionaires' wealth · independent.co.uk
- California proposition election results 2026: Here's where each prop stands · abc7news.com
- Proposition 42 would prohibit new California taxes on personal property, nullify other wealth taxes · cbsnews.com
- In California's Central Valley, Democrats hope to harvest fruits of Proposition 50 · rollcall.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the difference between the number of Yes votes for Proposition 42 and the number of Yes votes for Proposition 40 be above 0 votes in the November 3, 2026 California general election?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 97%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the difference between the number of Yes votes for Proposition 42 and the number of Yes votes for Proposition 40 be above 0 votes in the November 3, 2026 California general election?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 11, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-04 11:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.