RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
As of Nov 5, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 55%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 55%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Nov 8, 2026 (2d 18h)
- Volume
- $60,134
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 26 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Christopher Luxon condemns NZ First candidate Michael Laws' sexist attack: 'Stupid, absolutely stupid' · rnz.co.nz
- UTJ declines to endorse candidate for prime minister · israelnationalnews.com
- 31 years since assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin · clevelandjewishnews.com
- Christopher Luxon ruling out NZ First candidate as minister 'another frustration' - Winston Peters · rnz.co.nz
- Swedish parliament rejects Centre Party leader as next prime minister · thelocal.se
- Swedish parliament rejects Centre Party leader as new prime minister -Xinhua · english.news.cn
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 55%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 8, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-05 10:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.