RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — Trump +18 or more
As of Nov 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 97%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 97%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 15, 2026 (40d 4h)
- Volume
- $1,451
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 5 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declares "America is back" · wypr.org
- House Democratic leader vows lower costs, accountability as Democrats win House · aa.com.tr
- Trump's White House 'defiant' despite Democratic midterm gains · newindianexpress.com
- White House plans for possible Democratic victory · israelherald.com
- Democratic 2027 US House Majority · politicaldog101.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — Trump +18 or more”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 97%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? — Trump +18 or more”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 15, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-05 10:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.