RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 32%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
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Why we think this
- We weigh 327 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- UAE mulls third crude oil pipeline to avoid Strait of Hormuz · moneycontrol.com
- Four tankers destroyed by mines in Strait of Hormuz · omanobserver.om
- South Korea to expand naval operations closer to Strait of Hormuz · jpost.com
- IRGC announces destruction of four ships in Strait of Hormuz · jpost.com
- Indian Seafarer Killed in Strike in Strait of Hormuz · maritime-executive.com
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Targets in Strait of Hormuz Amid Tensions · thegrio.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 32%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 3, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-05 10:11 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.